WSS
Why So Serious? — BTC & ETH Paper Strategy Lab
Research-only paper trading. No real orders. Not investment advice.
BTC and ETH are reported separately; there is no combined PnL.
BTC · Live Paper
ETH · Experimental
A · BTC Strategy Lab
Live paper strategies on Kalshi BTC hourly markets (NO side, q=10 accounting). This is the only ranked / champion section. ETH (Section B) is never included in these rankings or totals.
Live Strategies
6
4 core + 2 challengers
Headline Fires (q=10)
8358
core + challengers
Headline Net PnL (q=10)
+181.17
BTC only · research evidence excluded
Core Net PnL (q=10)
+214.90
4 strategies
Challenger Fires (q=10)
2732
2 strategies
BTC Core Strategies
4 activeMost-established paper strategies, ranked by realized paper PnL on Kalshi
BTC hourly NO-side markets. Longest track record of the two live groups; never includes ETH.
| Strategy | Side | TTE | Status | Inception | Fires (q10) | Resolved | Net PnL (q10) | Max DD (q10) | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOVE-14 — Distance-Oriented Value Entry top5_overall_04_v0 | NO | 14 | Champion | 2026-06-04 | 843 | 843 | +147.28 | -77.55 | Deep Dive |
| SIEVE-14 — Selective Implied-Edge Value Entry top5_overall_03_v0 | NO | 14 | Core | 2026-06-04 | 760 | 760 | +128.22 | -114.45 | Deep Dive |
| FTE-14 NO — Fixed-Time Entry fixed_tte_14_no_v0 | NO | 14 | Benchmark | 2026-06-12 | 2508 | 2507 | -170.11 | -231.37 | Deep Dive |
| PACE-3/10 — Price-Adjusted Conditional Entry patient_kiss_3ct_fallback_tte10_v0 | NO | multi | Champion Review | 2026-06-13 | 1515 | 1515 | +109.50 | -70.50 | Deep Dive |
BTC Challengers — Forward Monitoring
2 activeForward-monitored paper strategies. No real orders. Each challenger is
tracked from its own fresh inception with no backfill; research evidence is tracked separately
where applicable.
| Strategy | Side | TTE | Status | Inception | Fires (q10) | Resolved | Net PnL (q10) | Max DD (q10) | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DART-50 — Distance-Aware Rank Threshold ml_shadow_01_distance_logit_top50pct_exec_v1 | NO | 14 | Challenger | 2026-06-14 | 1330 | 1330 | -69.07 | -129.23 | Deep Dive |
| LATE-12/10 — Late-Window Threshold Entry kiss_late_sniper_12_10_v0 | NO | multi | Challenger | 2026-06-13 | 1402 | 1402 | +35.34 | -93.11 | Deep Dive |
BTC Strategy Charts
Original In-Sample Discovery Evidence
historical · not liveHistorical discovery evidence only — not current deployment status.
PACE-3/10 and LATE-12/10 are ACTIVE challengers (see group above).
This block documents how they were originally found on the canonical in-sample panel
(May 25–Jun 5 2026) and is excluded from all headline totals. Full archives:
PACE-3/10 in-sample research ·
LATE-12/10 in-sample research.
BTC Strategy Deep Dives
| Strategy | Page |
|---|---|
| DOVE-14 — Distance-Oriented Value Entry | Deep Dive |
| SIEVE-14 — Selective Implied-Edge Value Entry | Deep Dive |
| FTE-14 NO — Fixed-Time Entry | Deep Dive |
| PACE-3/10 — Price-Adjusted Conditional Entry | Deep Dive |
| DART-50 — Distance-Aware Rank Threshold | Deep Dive |
| LATE-12/10 — Late-Window Threshold Entry | Deep Dive |
B · ETH Forward Monitors — Experimental
Status. Logging-only ETH timing monitors on Kalshi ETH 15-minute markets.
No real orders. Experimental; ETH results are never combined with BTC and never included
in BTC rankings or totals. Forward evidence is shown separately from research watchlist evidence.
Service Status
running
last loop: 2026-07-09T12:23:41.434389Z
Mode
Logging-only
no real orders
Model
eth_moneyness_heuristic_logit_v0
pinned heuristic baseline
Execution Schema
eth_exec_vwap_v1
model kalshi_book_walk_q10_v1
Experimental
Logging-only / no real orders
Heuristic baseline
Timing Monitors
| Monitor | Role | Candidates | Accepted Paper Fills | Rejected | Full-Fill Rate | Resolved (VWAP) | Deep Dive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EME-5 — ETH Moneyness Edge eth_t5_moneyness_edge_v0 | primary | 1656 | 1380 | 276 | 83.3% | 1361 | Deep Dive |
| EME-10C — ETH Moneyness Edge Control eth_t10_moneyness_edge_control_v0 | control | 1656 | 1295 | 361 | 78.2% | 1274 | Deep Dive |
Legacy (legacy_top_of_book_v0) and current (eth_exec_vwap_v1) execution records are counted separately and never combined; legacy counts are kept in the sanitized artifacts and traceability manifest. Rejection diagnostics are reported in the per-monitor deep dives and internal artifacts.
Execution Quality
Avg / max slippage vs best ask: n/a — fill detail not surfaced in summary.
Walked-VWAP fills are canonical only for eth_exec_vwap_v1;
legacy top-of-book fills are reported separately and never reinterpreted as VWAP.
Settlement & PnL
EME-5 — T-5 Primary Timing Monitor, Walked-VWAP Paper Performance
Primary monitor only (eth_t5_moneyness_edge_v0). Excludes the T-10 control.
T-5 Primary Resolved
1361
walked-VWAP trades
T-5 Primary Win Rate
14.5%
T-5 Primary Net PnL (q=10)
-587.75
T-5 Primary Max Drawdown
+624.68
Per-Monitor Walked-VWAP Performance (q=10)
The T-10 control is reported separately and never folded into the T-5 headline.
C · Research Watchlist — Observational
Observational watchlist. Forward evidence is collected from inception (q=10, starting at zero); research evidence is shown separately from forward PnL. No real orders, no capital. Never included in Section A rankings or totals.
Status: observational watchlist. Promotion review requires a longer live window
(≥30 days) and passing robustness checks, including the search-adjusted reality check and
independent review. Full detail: Research Watchlist page.
| Code | Name | Asset | Status | Inception | Fwd Trades | Fwd Net PnL (q10) | Research Test PnL | Cand. p | Search-Adj. Reality Check | Promotion Guard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTE-N5H6 btc_watch_fte14no_nearstrike_hour_v1 | FTE-14 NO Near-Strike Hour Gate | BTC | WATCHLIST | 2026-07-01 | 400 | -210.08 | +102.60 | 0.035 | FAILED (p=0.455) | forward sample below 30 days |
| EME-N25P40 eth_watch_nearmoney_lowpyes_v1 | ETH Near-Moneyness Low-pYES Gate | ETH | WATCHLIST | 2026-07-01 | 143 | -39.93 | +78.82 | 0.0 | NOT_RUN | forward sample below 30 days |
Generated 2026-07-09T12:24:25Z · inception 2026-07-01T20:45:00Z · research evidence is historical and separate from forward performance.
Research Watchlist — ML
Model-score-gated candidates from the ML discovery grid. Not an execution candidate. Paper-only; real orders disabled. Never included in Section A rankings or totals. Full detail: Research Watchlist page.
| Code | Name | Asset | Status | Inception | Fwd Trades | Fwd Net PnL (q10) | Research Test PnL | Search-Adj. p | Tracking status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XGB-GATE-20 xgb_side_filter_q20_phase2 | XGB Risk Gate — q20 | BTC | WATCHLIST | 2026-07-07 | 135 | -27.84 | +315.55 | 0.01 | ACTIVE |
D · Methodology / Disclaimers
- Research-only paper trading. No real orders are placed for either BTC or ETH. Nothing here is investment advice.
- BTC and ETH PnL are never combined. Each section reports its own numbers. There is no aggregate cross-asset PnL anywhere on this page.
- BTC (Section A) is the only ranked/champion section. Headline fires and net PnL include the visible core strategies and challengers; research evidence and hidden diagnostics are excluded from those totals.
- ETH (Section B) is a set of logging-only experimental timing monitors using a pinned heuristic baseline. Never ranked. Legacy top-of-book execution records are reported separately from walked-VWAP records and never merged.
- Research Watchlist (Section C) is observational. Forward PnL starts at zero at inception and historical research PnL is never backfilled into it. Promotion review requires a ≥30-day live window and passing robustness checks, including the search-adjusted reality check.
- Thin samples. All candidates are thin-sample; no statistical significance is claimed.
- Hidden diagnostics. Paused or diagnostic-only monitors (e.g. inactive shadow variants and sub-5-minute ETH diagnostic cutoffs) are tracked internally and in the traceability manifest but are not shown in the public tables or charts.
- Dashboards refresh via a GitHub Actions manual/scheduled trigger. If the ETH source fails to refresh, the last committed sanitized baseline is shown with a visible stale-data warning.